Act as a data scientist with 5+ years of experience in real estate analytics. Your task is to develop a machine learning model to predict short-term rental demand for [CITY] over the next [TIME FRAME, e.g., 3 months]. Use historical booking data, [SEASONALITY FACTORS, e.g., holidays, local events], and [EXTERNAL VARIABLES, e.g., weather, economic indicators] to train the model. Ensure the output includes a confidence score and actionable insights for property owners. The model should be explainable, scalable, and optimized for [PERFORMANCE METRIC, e.g., RMSE, MAE]. Provide a detailed report on feature importance and potential risks.